I’ve been told my previous post may be too long for some. See that one for any discussion of level of certainty or lack thereof. See it here you’ve got limited time or patience. I think…

Biden will:

  1. Win national popular vote by 8.5 & win all states Hillary did.
  2. Win MI & WI by 6+
  3. Lose FL by by 1
  4. Win NC by 1.5
  5. Win PA by 3.5, but it won’t be called until Thursday
  6. Win AZ by 2
  7. Win Nebraska 2nd District by 3
  8. Win GA by 0.5, but it may require a recount
  9. Lose IA by 1

Election Preview (as of Nov 1 @ 2:45pm PST)

(photo credit: Mark Mulligan, Houston Chronicle)

Some friends asked me what I think will happen in this election, because they know I think about it too much, and because I like forecasting. My wife, perhaps ready to end hearing me speculate over breakfast suggested I write them down so I can point to it afterwards — and be brief, with perhaps more backup later. So, with some humility (in that I don’t do this professionally), and my blanket caveat for the entire year of 2020 (who knows what else is going…


I previously wrote about how the current President’s choice to withdraw the US from cooperating with other countries to fight the causes of climate change (despite letters from even Exxon Mobil recommending the opposite course) made me worried for my two little daughters and made me furious that the President was so willfully choosing to put my children’s — and all children’s — future world at risk. …


Why the next 365 days (until the Election in 2020) will be one of the most important years of our lives

I’m a dad. I believe our current President has chosen to significantly endanger the world I dream of passing on to my kids. I write that hesitantly, because it may seem an exaggeration— and it is also very sad — but based on the facts I understand, I am convinced that it is true.

This is the story of how I feel about that and what I plan to do about it.

Really, the President has cause significant danger…

Jack Moore

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